The Farmer’s Choice: Control vs. Chance
We’ve just had some nice early autumn rain across much of Victoria. It’s a welcome relief — there’s nothing like the smell of fresh rain on dry ground and the promise of a bit of green poking through. For a little while at least, it might ease those conversations on the fence line that we all know too well — “Gee, some moisture would be nice.”
But give it a few weeks, and the familiar next line will appear — “Some more would be nice.”
It’s part of the rhythm of life on the land — talking about the weather, the market, and whatever the politicians are up to. It’s a way of building rapport with neighbours and friends, sharing the ups and downs of life on the farm. But while these conversations are part of bush culture, we need to be careful that they don’t slip into how we manage our business. Let’s just say it has been a while since it rained on Anzac Day without fail (and the reality is it never did!).
The truth is, we can’t control the weather. We can’t control cattle prices, or the market, or trade agreements, or the outcome of the next election. But what we can control is how we respond. And that’s where the difference between surviving and thriving lies.
I have to remind myself time and time again — and it takes discipline — that hope is not a strategy. Farming is a business, and the farmers who succeed are the ones who focus on what they can control.
At RCS, we often talk about managing a grazing business through the lens of grass, money, and livestock — a framework also used in the Bud Williams inspired KLR Marketing system. This structure provides a simple but powerful way to focus on the key drivers of profitability in a grazing business.
1. Grass — How Much Do We Have and Are We Using It Effectively?
Grass is the foundation of any grazing business. Without it, you’ve got nothing to feed your stock and no way to make a margin. Managing grass effectively is about knowing how much you have ahead of you and matching stocking rate (SR) to carrying capacity (CC). That is, adjusting for your current reality.
Ask yourself:
- How much grass do I have ahead of me? – How many days of grazing are left in front of you?
- Am I matching stocking rate to carrying capacity? – Overgrazing depletes the resource and costs you in the long run. Understocking wastes potential.
- Are my pastures rain-ready? – Are they in a state to respond well if you get follow-up rain? Good ground cover and root depth mean faster recovery and stronger pasture growth when the season does break.
Managing grass well is about thinking ahead. If your stocking rate is too high for what’s in front of you, you need to act early. That might mean marketing stock early, weaning early, or, in the extreme it may mean confinement feeding or finding agistment (but only if these are budgeted and have an end date).
Building resilience into your pastures through time-controlled grazing and planned rest means you’re not just relying on the next rain — you’re setting yourself up to respond when it comes.
2. Money — Are We on Track Financially?
A good season won’t save you if the cash flow isn’t there to carry you through the year. Remember, revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, and cashflow if king.
Ask yourself:
- Do you have a budget? – And more importantly, have you revised it lately? A budget isn’t a set-and-forget tool — it needs to reflect changing conditions.
- What does cash flow look like for the rest of the year? – If you’re heading into a cashflow shortfall, the time to act is now, not when the pressure hits.
- If it’s looking ugly — what’s the plan? – If you can see a problem coming, you’ve got options.
The best operators manage their business based on numbers, not gut feel. Cashflow issues rarely appear overnight — they build over time. If the budget isn’t stacking up, you need to be ready to adjust.
At RCS, we emphasise management accounting — tracking not just cashflow but changes in economic profit. This gives you a clear picture of real production and profits, not just changes through your bank accounts.
If the numbers don’t look good, you have to make decisions early — before you’re forced into them.
3. Livestock — Are We Positioned to Take Advantage of Market Conditions?
This is where we turn sunlight into protein into dollars. Managing livestock effectively is about more than just raising good cattle or sheep — it’s about being positioned to take advantage of market opportunities.
Ask yourself:
- Are my animals where they need to be in terms of condition?
- What are my exit options? – Are you in a position to sell if the market is strong or if you need to adjust stocking rates?
- What marketing strategies should I be exploring? – Are you just selling when you need to or under pressure, or are you following a structured system to maximise margins and manage market risk?
This is where the KLR Marketing system provides a powerful framework, and if you haven’t done this training, I strongly recommend that you invest in your knowledge and do so.
Focus on What You Can Control
It’s easy to get caught up in conversations about the weather, the markets, and the politics — but none of those things are within your control. What is in your control is how you respond to changing conditions, how you manage your land, and how you position your business to make the most of the opportunities in front of you.
When you focus on grass, money, and livestock — the core drivers of profitability — you take control of your business rather than leaving it to chance. And remember, when you run out of grass, you run out of options.
- Manage your grass to maintain a consistent feed base and improve long-term carrying capacity.
- Manage your money to maintain positive cash flow and avoid forced decisions.
- Manage your livestock to maximise gross margin and capture market opportunities.
You can’t control the rain — but you can control how ready you are when it comes.
You can’t control the market — but you can control how you position your business to respond to it.
Hope is not a strategy. Are you ready to start Grazing for Profit?
Like to know more? Start by calling our office on 1800 356 004.
Dom Walker Advisor & Coach | RCS
Book a call – https://calendly.com/dwalker-rcs/30min
P 0435 935 526
E dwalker@rcsaustralia.com.au
W www.rcsaustralia.com.au